Research

Investment in clean power depends on the price of internationally traded fossil fuels. To what extent can major fossil fuel exporters like the U.S. influence global electricity decarbonization through their trade policy? To answer this question, I develop and estimate a dynamic, multi-country model of power asset investment, where the carbon intensity of electricity generation is affected by the entry and exit of plants using alternative fuels and the local price of fossil inputs is determined in a global trade equilibrium. Using this model, I assess the climate impact of granting federal approval to all proposed U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminal projects, which would double U.S. export capacity by 2030. Results indicate a net decrease in global emissions through 2070, primarily due to higher local gas prices in the U.S., leading to lower domestic gas generation and accelerated renewable adoption. In the rest of the world, short-term emissions fall as reliance on coal drops, yet delayed renewable uptake drives long-term emissions up. Combining the LNG expansion with carbon policies in importing countries substantially boosts carbon savings. Conversely, reverting LNG capacity to baseline by 2050 shows little impact, underscoring the risk of carbon lock-in in settings with long-lived infrastructure.

This project investigates the climate implications of industrial and trade policies in the global solar panel industry—a key sector for the transition to a low-carbon economy. It aims to understand how policies targeting solar adoption and production impact global renewable energy deployment and climate goals. While these measures can accelerate domestic decarbonization, they may also generate unintended consequences, including increased adoption costs or spatial inefficiencies in solar panel production. To study this question, I incorporate solar panel production and trade into a dynamic global trade model of the power sector. The framework accounts for sector-specific learning externalities and global equilibrium effects. The analysis will quantify the global and regional impacts of existing policies, such as U.S. solar panel tariffs and Chinese manufacturing subsidies, while evaluating their long-term climate and welfare implications.

The global liquified natural gas (LNG) market has experienced a significant transformation in recent years, with a shift towards more flexible contracts and an increase in price indexation to natural gas spot markets. What are the drivers of this secular change, and what are its implications for the global propagation of shocks? To anwer this question, I develop a model of endogenous contracting where LNG exporters and importers determine contract terms based on the correlation of shocks they face and their expectations of market trends. This framework aims to shed light on the role of emerging market players, particularly the United States, in reshaping price dynamics and influencing contract structures in the LNG market. To discipline the main parameters in my model, I leverage a dataset on LNG contracts that includes information on contract duration, indexation clauses, and other relevant terms.

How does post-secondary education shape individuals’ exposure to economic shocks? This paper examines this question in the context of the 2014 oil price crash in Canada. Using unique data linking post-secondary education records to tax files, we find that a one-standard deviation decrease in school-major-specific labor demand reduces graduates’ earnings by 2.3 percent. Students most exposed to the shock were also more likely to file for unemployment insurance and engage in self-employment. Additionally, the labor demand shock reduced dropout rates, highlighting the role of students’ outside options in shaping school enrollment decisions.