Publications

Forthcoming

“The Downside of Fertility”. NBER Working Paper no. 34268. Forthcoming in the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium Proceedings on Labor Markets in Transition

Working Papers

2023

“Why Women Won.” NBER Working Paper no. 31762 (October)

2022

“When the Kids Grow Up: Women’s Employment and Earnings across the Family Cycle.” (with Sari Kerr and Claudia Olivetti). NBER Working Paper no. 30323 (August 2022)

2016

“How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging.” NBER Working Paper no. 22445 (July)

Published

2025

“Mobilizing the Manpower of Mothers” (with Claudia Olivetti and Joseph Ferrie), Explorations in Economic History 97 (July), article 101684

“Babies and the Macroeconomy.” Ronald Coase Lecture at the London School of Economics. Economica 92(367): 675-700

2024

“Nobel Lecture: An Evolving Economic Force,” American Economic Review 114(6): 1515-39

“The Parental Pay Gap over the Life Cycle: Children, Jobs, and Labor Supply” (with Claudia Olivetti and Sari P. Kerr), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 169 (December), article 101963

“Seeking the ‘Missing Women’ of Economics with the Undergraduate Women in Economics Challenge” (with Tatyana Avilova), Journal of Economic Perspectives 38(3): 137-62

“The Incubator of Human Capital: The NBER and the Rise of the Human Capital Paradigm,” (with L. Katz). In M. Bailey, L. Boustan, and W. Collins, eds., Historical Labor Markets and Inequality (University of Chicago)

“The Other Side of the Mountain: Women’s Employment and Earnings over the Family Cycle” (with S. Kerr and C. Olivetti). In Dimensions of Inequality: The IFS Deaton Review. Oxford Open Economics 2024 (3) i323-i334

2022

“Understanding the Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Women.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Spring: 65-110

2021

“Assessing Five Statements about the Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Women.” National Academy of Sciences, Societal Experts Action Network (online)

“Journey across a Century of Women.” Milken Institute Review 23(2): 36-45

2020

“Why Firms Provide Paid Family Leave: An Exploratory Study” (with S. Kerr and C. Olivetti). In B. Sawhill and B. Stevenson, eds., Paid Leave for Caregiving: Issues and Answers (AEI/Brookings Institution, 2020), pp. 66-92. Also NBER Working Paper no. 26617 (January 2020)

“Extending the Race between Education and Technology” (with D. Autor and L. Katz), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 110 (May), pp. 347-51

“What Can UWE Do for Economics?” (with T. Avilova). In Shelly Lundberg, ed., Women in Economics. A CEPR Press VoxEU.org Book. Also in AEA Papers and Proceedings 2018 108 (May): 186-90

2019

“XX > XY? The Changing Female Advantage in Life Expectancy” (with A. Lleras-Muney). Journal of Health Economics 67. Symposium to Honor R.W. Fogel. Also, NBER Working Paper no. 24716 (June 2018)

“Watersheds in Child Mortality: The Role of Effective Water and Sewerage Infrastructure, 1880 to 1920” (with M. Alsan), Journal of Political Economy 127(2), pp. 586-638

2018

“Women Working Longer: Introduction,” (with L. Katz).  In Women Working Longer, edited by Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz.  Chicago IL: University of Chicago Press, pp. 1-8

“Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations,” (with L. Katz).  In Women Working Longer, edited by Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz.  Chicago IL: University of Chicago Press, pp. 11-54

2017

“The New Lifecycle of Women’s Employment: Disappearing Humps, Sagging Middles, Expanding Tops” (with J. Mitchell), Journal of Economic Perspectives 31(1) (Winter), pp. 161-82

“The Expanding Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence from the LEHD-2000 Census” (with S. Kerr, C. Olivetti, and E. Barth), American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 107 (May), pp. 110-14

2016

“The Most Egalitarian of All Professions: Pharmacy and the Evolution of a Family-Friendly Occupation” (with L. Katz), Journal of Labor Economics 34(3) (July), pp. 705-46

“The Value of Postsecondary Credentials in the Labor Market: An Experimental Study” (with D. Deming, N. Yuchtman, A. Abulafi, and L. Katz), American Economic Review 106(3), pp. 778-806

2015

“Can Online Learning Bend the Cost Curve of Higher Education?” (with D. Deming, L. Katz, N. Yuchtman), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings (May), 105(5), pp. 496-501

2014

“Does Federal Student Aid Raise Tuition? New Evidence on For-Profit Colleges” (with S. Cellini), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6 (November), pp. 174-206

“A Grand Gender Convergence: Its Last Chapter,” American Economic Review 104 (April), pp. 1091-119

“Human Capital.”  In Handbook of Cliometrics, Claude Diebolt and Michael Haupert, eds.  (Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag)

“A Pollution Theory of Discrimination: Male and Female Differences in Occupations and Earnings.” In L. Boustan, C. Frydman, and R. Margo, Human Capital and History: The American Record (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), pp. 313-48

2013

“Shocking Labor Supply: A Reassessment of the Role of World War II on Women’s Labor Supply” (with C. Olivetti), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (May), pp. 257-62

“For Profit Colleges,” (with D. Deming and L. Katz), The Future of Children 23 (Spring), pp. 137-63

2012

“The For-Profit Post-Secondary School Sector: Nimble Critters or Agile Predators?” (with D. Deming and L. Katz), Journal of Economic Perspectives 26 (Winter), pp 139-64

2011

“The Cost of Workplace Flexibility for High-Powered Professionals” (with L. Katz), The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 638 (November), pp. 45-67

“Putting the ‘Co’ in Education: Timing, Reasons, and Consequences of College Coeducation from 1835 to the Present” (with L. Katz), Journal of Human Capital,5 (Winter 2011), pp. 377-417

“Mass Secondary Schooling and the State: The Role of State Compulsion in the High School Movement” (with L. Katz).  In D. Costa and N. Lamoreaux, Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth (Cambridge University Press)

2010

“Dynamics of the Gender Gap among Young Professionals in the Corporate and Financial Sectors” (with M. Bertrand and L. Katz), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2 (July 2010), pp. 228-55

2009

“Why the United States Led in Education: Lessons from Secondary School Expansion, 1910 to 1940” (with L. Katz).  In D. Eltis, F. Lewis, and K. Sokoloff, eds., Human Capital and Institutions: A Long Run View.  New York: Cambridge University Press

“The Future of Inequality: The Other Reason Education Matters So Much” (with L. Katz), Milken Institute Review. Third Quarter, pp. 26-33

2008

“Transitions: Career and Family Life Cycles of the Educational Elite,” American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 98 (May), pp. 363-69

2007

“Long-run Changes in the U.S. Wage Structure: Narrowing, Widening, Polarizing,” (with L. Katz).  In D. Elmendorf and W. Gale, eds., Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, Brookings Institution Press

2006

“The ‘Quiet Revolution’ That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, (Ely Lecture), 96 (May), pp. 1-21

“The Homecoming of American College Women: The Reversal of the Gender Gap in College” (with L. Katz and I. Kuziemko), Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (Fall), pp. 133-56

“The Rise of the Fourth Estate: How Newspapers Became Informative and Why it Mattered,” (with E. L. Glaeser and M. Gentzkow).  In E. L. Glaeser and C. Goldin, eds., Corruption and Reform.  Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 187-230

“Corruption and Reform: An Introduction,” (with E. L. Glaeser). In E. L. Glaeser and C. Goldin, eds., Corruption and Reform.  Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 3-22

“The Rising (and then Declining) Significance of Gender.”  In F. D. Blau, M. C. Brinton, and D. B. Grusky, eds., The Declining Significance of Gender? New York: Russell Sage Foundation, pp. 67-101

2005

“A Brief History of Education” (together with data series on education), Historical Statistics of the United States, Millennial Edition.  New York: Cambridge University Press

2004

“From the Valley to the Summit: A Brief History of the Quiet Revolution that Transformed Women’s Work,” Regional Review, Q1 vol. 14 (2004), pp. 5-12

“The Long Road to the Fast Track: Career and Family,” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 596 (November 2004), pp. 20-35

“Making a Name: Surnames of College Women at Marriage and Beyond” (with M. Shim), Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18 (Spring 2004): 143-60

2003

“Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth,” (with J.B. DeLong and L. Katz).  In H. Aaron, J. Lindsay, and P. Nivola, eds., Agenda for the Nation.  Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press

“American Leadership in the Human Capital Century: Have the Virtues of the Past Become the Vices of the Present?” Education Next

2002

“American Leadership in the Human Capital Century: Have the Virtues of the Past Become the Vices of the Present?”  In Y. Kodrzycki, ed., Education in the 21^st Century: Meeting the Challenges of a Changing World, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 47^th Economic Conference (June)

“The Power of the Pill: Oral Contraceptives and Women’s Career and Marriage Decisions” (with L. Katz), Journal of Political Economy 110 (August): 730-70

2001

“The Shaping of Higher Education in the United States and New England,” (with L. Katz), Regional Review, IV Quarter, Vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 5-11

“The Human Capital Century and American Leadership: Virtues of the Past,” Journal of Economic History 61 (June): 263-91

“The Legacy of U.S. Educational Leadership: Notes on Distribution and Economic Growth in the Twentieth Century” (with L. Katz), American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 91 (May): 18-23

“Decreasing (and then Increasing) Inequality in America: A Tale of Two Half Centuries,” (with L. Katz), in F. Welch, ed., The Causes and Consequences of Increasing Inequality.  Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2001, pp. 37-82

“On the Pill: Changing the Course of Women’s Education” (with L. Katz), The Milken Institute Review: A Journal of Economic Policy 3 (2nd Quarter), pp. 12-21

2000

“Education and Income in the Early 20th Century: Evidence from the Prairies,” (with L. Katz), Journal of Economic History (September): 782-818

“Orchestrating Impartiality: The Impact of Blind Auditions on the Sex Composition of Orchestras” (with C. Rouse), American Economic Review (September): 715-41.  Recipient of the Minnesota Award, 2002

“Career and Marriage in the Age of the Pill” (with L. Katz), American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 90 (May): 461-65

“Labor Markets in the Twentieth Century.”  In S. Engerman and R. Gallman, eds., The Cambridge Economic History of the United States, Vol. 3.  New York: Cambridge University Press, chapter 10, pp. 549-624

1999

“Egalitarianism and the Returns to Education during the Great Transformation of American Education,” Journal of Political Economy 107 (December): S65-S94

“The Shaping of Higher Education: The Formative Years in the United States, 1890 to 1940,” (with L. Katz), Journal of Economic Perspectives 13 (Winter): 37-62

“Human Capital and Social Capital: The Rise of Secondary Schooling in America, 1910 to 1940” (with L. Katz), Journal of Interdisciplinary History XXIX (Spring 1999): 683-723

“The Economist as Detective.”  In M. Szenberg, ed., Passion and Craft: Economists at Work

1998

“The Origins of Technology-Skill Complementarity,” (with L. Katz), Quarterly Journal of Economics 113 (June): 693-732

“America’s Graduation from High School: The Evolution and Spread of Secondary Schooling in the Twentieth Century,” Journal of Economic History 58 (June): 345-74

“The Origins of State-Level Differences in the Public Provision of Higher Education: 1890 to 1940” (with L. Katz), American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 88 (May): 303-08

“A Distinctive System: Origins and Impact of U.S. Unemployment Compensation” (with K. Baicker and L. Katz).  In M. Bordo, C. Goldin, and E. White, eds., The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press

“The Defining Moment Hypothesis: The Editors’ Introduction.”  In M. Bordo, C. Goldin, and E. White, eds., The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century.  Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press

1997

“Career and Family: College Women Look to the Past.”  In F. Blau and R. Ehrenberg, eds., Gender and Family Issues in the Workplace.  New York: Russell Sage Press, pp. 20-58

“Exploring the Present through the Past: Career and Family across the Last Century,” American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 87 (May 1997), pp. 396-99.  Reprinted in D. Figart and E. Mutari, eds., Women and the Economy: A Reader.  New York: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 2003

1996

“Technology, Skill, and the Wage Structure: Insights from the Past” (with Lawrence F. Katz), American Economic Review 86 (May): 252-57

1995

“The U-Shaped Female Labor Force Function in Economic Development and Economic History.”  In T. P. Schultz, ed., Investment in Women’s Human Capital and Economic Development.  Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, pp. 61-90

“Cliometrics and the Nobel,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 9 (Spring): 191-208

1994

“The Savings of Ordinary Americans: The Philadelphia Saving Fund Society in the Mid-Nineteenth Century” (with George Alter and Elyce Rotella), Journal of Economic History 54 (December): 735-67

“The Political Economy of Immigration Restriction: The United States, 1890-1921.”  In C. Goldin and G. Libecap, eds., The Regulated Economy: An Historical Analysis of Government and the Economy.  Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press

1993

“Seasonality in Nineteenth Century American Labor Markets,” (with Stanley Engerman).  In D. Schaefer and T. Weiss, eds., Economic Development in Historical Perspective.  Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press

1992

“The Great Compression: The U.S. Wage Structure at Mid-Century,” (with R. Margo), Quarterly Journal of Economics, February

“Wages, Prices, and Labor Markets in Antebellum America” (with R. Margo).  In C. Goldin and H. Rockoff, eds., Strategic Factors in Nineteenth Century American Economic History.  Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, pp. 67-104

1991

“The Role of World War II in the Rise of Women’s Employment,” American Economic Review 81 (September): 741-56

“Marriage Bars: Discrimination Against Married Women Workers from the 1920s to the 1950s.”  In Henry Rosovsky, David Landes, and Patrice Higonnet, eds., Favorites of Fortune: Technology, Growth, and Economic Development since the Industrial Revolution.  Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, pp. 511-36

1989

“Parental Altruism and Self-Interest: Child Labor among Late-Nineteenth Century American Families” (with Donald Parsons), Economic Inquiry 27 (October): 637-659.  1989 Award for the Best Article in Economic Inquiry

“The Poor at Birth: Birth Weights and Infant Mortality, 1847-1877” (with Robert Margo), Explorations in Economic History (July)

“Life Cycle Labor Force Participation of Married Women: Historical Evidence and Implications,” Journal of Labor Economics 7 (January): 20-47

1988

“Maximum Hours Legislation and Female Employment in the 1920’s: A Reassessment,” Journal of Political Economy 96 (February): 189-205

1987

“Residual Differences by Sex: Perspectives on the Gender Gap in Earnings,” (with S. Polachek), American Economic Review, 77 (May): 143-51

“Monitoring Costs and Occupational Segregation by Sex: A Historical Analysis,” Journal of Labor Economics 4 (January): 1-27

1986

“The Gender Gap in Historical Perspective, 1800 to 1980.”  In Peter Kilby, ed. Quantity and Quiddity: Essays in American Economic History.  Wesleyan, CT: Wesleyan University Press

“The Female Labor Force and American Economic Growth: 1890 to 1980.”  In Stanley Engerman and Robert Gallman, eds., Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, Conference on Income and Wealth, vol. 51.  Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press

“The Economic Status of Women in the Early Republic: Quantitative Evidence,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 16 (3): 374-404.  Reproduced in Nancy Cott, ed., History of Women in America.  Westport, CT: 1990

1985

“The­ Earnings Gap in Historical Perspective.”  In U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, Comparable Worth: Issue for the 1980s.  Washington, D.C.: GPO

1984

“The Relative Productivity Hypothesis of Industrialization: The American Case, 1820 to 1850” (with Kenneth Sokoloff), Quarterly Journal of Economics 99 (August): 461-488

“The Historical Evolution of Female Earnings Functions and Occupations,” Explorations in Economic History, 21 (January): 1-27

1983

“The Changing Economic Role of Women: A Quantitative Approach,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 13 (Spring): 707-73

1982

“Women, Children, and Industrialization in the Early Republic: Evidence from the Manufacturing Censuses” (with Kenneth Sokoloff), Journal of Economic History 42 (December): 741-74

1980

“The Work and Wages of Single Women: 1870 to 1920,” Journal of Economic History 40 (March): 81-89

“The Role of Exports in American Economic Growth During the Napoleonic Wars, 1793 to 1807,” (with Frank Lewis) Explorations in Economic History 17 (January): 6-25

“Family Strategies and the Late Nineteenth Century Family Economy: The Role of Secondary Workers.”  In Theodore Hershberg, ed., Philadelphia: Work, Space, Family, and Group Experience in the 19th Century.  Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 277-310

“War in American Economic History.”  In Glenn Porter, ed., The Encyclopedia of American Economic History, vol. 3.  New York: Scribner’s and Sons

1979

“Household and Market Production of Families in a Late Nineteenth Century City,” Explorations in Economic History 16 (April): 111-131

“‘N’ Kinds of Freedom: An Introduction to the Issues,” Explorations in Economic History 16 (January): 8-30.  Reprinted as “Credit Merchandising in the New South: The Role of Competition and Risk.”  In James Shepherd and Gary Walton, eds., Market Institutions and Economic Progress, 1865-1900.  New York: Academic Press, 1981

1978

“The Post-Bellum Recovery of the South and the Cost of the Civil War: Comment” (with Frank Lewis), Journal of Economic History 38 (June): 487-92

1977

“Female Labor Force Participation: The Origin of Black and White Differences, 1870 to 1880,” Journal of Economic History 37 (March): 87-108.  Reprinted in Darlene Clark Hine, et al., eds., Black Women in United States History.  New York: Carlson Publishing Inc., 1991

1975

“Cities and Slavery: The Issue of Compatibility.”  In Leo Schnore, ed., The New Urban History.  Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press

“The Economic Cost of the American Civil War: Estimates and Implications” (with Frank Lewis), Journal of Economic History 35 (June): 299-326

“A Model to Explain the Relative Decline of Urban Slavery.”  In Stanley Engerman and Eugene Genovese, eds., Race and Slavery in the Western Hemisphere.  Princeton. NJ: Princeton University Press

1973

“The Economics of Emancipation,” Journal of Economic History 33 (March): 66-85.  Reprinted in Robert W. Fogel, ed., Without Consent or Contract.  New York: Norton Books, 1992